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Treasury Borrowing Estimates At High End / Above Analyst Estimates

US TSYS/SUPPLY
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Q2 marketable borrowing estimates at the higher end, Q3 above estimates

  • Q2: $243bn vs the previously estimated $202bn and vs analyst estimates seen ranging from $160-190bn to upwards of $250bn.
  • Q3: $847bn vs a rough read of consensus at around $700bn (with a wide range of $500-750bn that depended at least in part on QT assumptions).
  • Remember that coupon auction sizes are overwhelmingly (perhaps unanimously) expected to be unchanged for the upcoming quarter, with financing adjustments to be made via bills - announced Wed.
  • Full sources and uses table here: https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/SU-Apr2024.pdf
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Q2 marketable borrowing estimates at the higher end, Q3 above estimates

  • Q2: $243bn vs the previously estimated $202bn and vs analyst estimates seen ranging from $160-190bn to upwards of $250bn.
  • Q3: $847bn vs a rough read of consensus at around $700bn (with a wide range of $500-750bn that depended at least in part on QT assumptions).
  • Remember that coupon auction sizes are overwhelmingly (perhaps unanimously) expected to be unchanged for the upcoming quarter, with financing adjustments to be made via bills - announced Wed.
  • Full sources and uses table here: https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/SU-Apr2024.pdf