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Russia Central Bank
Russia Central Bank
Executive Summary
- The CBR is expected to reduce its Key Rate by 200bps to 15.00% this week, in line with the bloomberg consensus
- After an initial supply-driven surge in inflation, w/w CPI figures reflect reduced upside inertia as FX passthrough and panic buying moderate - creating space for an easing of emergency measures
- Sell-side forecasts see headline CPI rising to 20% y/y in April and plateauing until early 2023, but anticipate a sharp contraction in FY22 GDP (8.5-12%) with the balance of risks shifting from inflation to growth
- Nabiullina will likely guide cautiously in the post-meeting presser, while highlighting the temporary nature of emergency measures and broad uncertainty in the medium-term outlook
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The CBR is broadly expected to reduce its Key Rate by 200bps to 15.00% this week on the back of more moderate inflationary pressures and a resurgent rouble. With emergency measures having delivered relative market stability, the Bank’s focus now shifts away from inflation towards growth to soften recessionary risks to the economy. Nabiullina will also resume her post-statement pressers, with markets keenly focused on her assessment of the medium to longer-term outlook.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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