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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 24 Feb

The EU, Belgium, Italy and Germany are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
HomepageEurozoneGlobal IssuanceGlobal Issuance - EurozoneMarketsStory

For the full PDF with more including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, click here: EZ250224.pdf

  • The EU, Belgium, Italy and Germany are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
  • We also pencil in a syndication from Spain.
  • We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E31.9bln, down from E37.7bln this week.
  • The upcoming week sees E17.5bln of which the majority is from a formerly 3-year OAT.
  • Coupon payments for the week total E3.5bln of which E2.8bln are French, E0.3bln are Italian and E0.2bln are Slovakian.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E10.8bln, vs negative E6.8bln this week.

Supply Next Week

  • On Monday, the EU will hold an EU-bond auction selling up to E2.5bln of the short 3-year 2.875% Dec-27 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4EW6) and up to E2.5bln of the 15-year 3.375% Oct-39 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3LZ0X9).
  • Also on Monday, Belgium will hold a conventional auction to sell a combined E2.6-3.0bln of the 2.70% Oct-29 OLO (ISIN: BE0000362716), the 3.00% Jun-34 OLO (ISIN: BE0000333428) and the 1.90% Jun-38 OLO (ISIN: BE0000336454).
    • The fact that the longest maturity OLO on offer at the auction has 13-years to maturity increases our conviction that the second Belgian syndication of the year will be a 30-year issue – but we think the timing of that has likely shifted to March instead of February now.
  • On Tuesday, Italy will hold a BTP Short Term and BTPei auction. On offer will be E2.5-2.75bln of the 2.55% Feb-27 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005633794) - in line with our expectations - and E1.25-1.5bln of the 1.80% May-36 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005588881).
  • Also on Tuesday, Germany will hold a Green auction selling E1.5bln of the 1.80% Aug-53 Green Bund (ISIN: DE0001030757).
  • On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to hold a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E500mln of the 0% May-36 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102549) alongside E1.5bln of the 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598).
  • Finally on Thursday, Italy will return to the market to hold a 5/10-year BTP and CCTeu auction. Details will be announced on Monday. We see a good chance that a new 5-year BTP is launched (maturing 1 July 2030), although there is a chance that we see a final reopening of the 3.00% Oct-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005611055) for a smaller-than-usual amount alongside another 5-year BTP. For the 10-year BTP, we look for a first reopening of the 3.65% Aug-35 BTP (ISIN: IT0005631590) that was launched via syndication on 8 January. We don’t have a strong view with regards to the CCTeu on offer.

 

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For the full PDF with more including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, click here: EZ250224.pdf

  • The EU, Belgium, Italy and Germany are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
  • We also pencil in a syndication from Spain.
  • We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E31.9bln, down from E37.7bln this week.
  • The upcoming week sees E17.5bln of which the majority is from a formerly 3-year OAT.
  • Coupon payments for the week total E3.5bln of which E2.8bln are French, E0.3bln are Italian and E0.2bln are Slovakian.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E10.8bln, vs negative E6.8bln this week.

Supply Next Week

  • On Monday, the EU will hold an EU-bond auction selling up to E2.5bln of the short 3-year 2.875% Dec-27 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4EW6) and up to E2.5bln of the 15-year 3.375% Oct-39 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3LZ0X9).
  • Also on Monday, Belgium will hold a conventional auction to sell a combined E2.6-3.0bln of the 2.70% Oct-29 OLO (ISIN: BE0000362716), the 3.00% Jun-34 OLO (ISIN: BE0000333428) and the 1.90% Jun-38 OLO (ISIN: BE0000336454).
    • The fact that the longest maturity OLO on offer at the auction has 13-years to maturity increases our conviction that the second Belgian syndication of the year will be a 30-year issue – but we think the timing of that has likely shifted to March instead of February now.
  • On Tuesday, Italy will hold a BTP Short Term and BTPei auction. On offer will be E2.5-2.75bln of the 2.55% Feb-27 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005633794) - in line with our expectations - and E1.25-1.5bln of the 1.80% May-36 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005588881).
  • Also on Tuesday, Germany will hold a Green auction selling E1.5bln of the 1.80% Aug-53 Green Bund (ISIN: DE0001030757).
  • On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to hold a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E500mln of the 0% May-36 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102549) alongside E1.5bln of the 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598).
  • Finally on Thursday, Italy will return to the market to hold a 5/10-year BTP and CCTeu auction. Details will be announced on Monday. We see a good chance that a new 5-year BTP is launched (maturing 1 July 2030), although there is a chance that we see a final reopening of the 3.00% Oct-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005611055) for a smaller-than-usual amount alongside another 5-year BTP. For the 10-year BTP, we look for a first reopening of the 3.65% Aug-35 BTP (ISIN: IT0005631590) that was launched via syndication on 8 January. We don’t have a strong view with regards to the CCTeu on offer.