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###(1/2) Views mixed on likely changes.....>

ECB VIEW
ECB VIEW: ###(1/2) Views mixed on likely changes to ECB forward guidance Thur
- Morgan Stanley: Likely to see small changes in language (no longer says ECB
stands ready to increase QE but leave duration) at press conference to prepare
markets for end of QE in Q4 2018.
- TD: Think it's more likely that all the key language remains unchanged. We
don't believe that there has been enough progress in underlying inflation to
support a change in guidance quite yet. June meeting more likely, since ECB
should also announce plans for its QE after Sep - extend, taper, or stop.
- Commerzbank: ECB Council is likely to discuss its forward guidance. May drop
statement that it would increase QE if necessary. However, in view of statements
from some ECB Council members as well as recent CPI trends, we believe the
Council is more likely to postpone its decision once again.
- Barclays: We do not expect any change to the monetary policy set-up, and we
expect the forward guidance to be left unchanged, both for the APP and for
interest rates. Maintain view change will be in April. See staff forecasts
revised up in both growth & inflation..

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