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1 Month NDF Consolidates, Offshore Equity Outflows Continue Despite Better Sentiment

KRW

1 month USD/KRW saw a dip sub 1375 in US trade on Monday, but we finished up at 1378.2, around 0.40% weaker in won terms versus end Friday levels. Still, broad 1370/1400 ranges from recent weeks remain intact. Spot USD/KRW finished up Monday's session at 1379.4.

  • Monday US trade delivered better tech equity sentiment. The SOX rose 1.74%, while the MSCI IT gained 1.11%. Broader equity sentiment was positive in US/EU markets, as risk appetite improved on no further escalation in Mid East tensions. Earnings sentiment will be a key focus point this week. US real yields sit just under recent highs, last at 2.21% (for the 10yr).
  • The Kospi rallied 1.45% yesterday, so likely already embeds some better sentiment. Offshore investors still sold local equities though with nearly $600mn in further outflows.
  • On the data front, we have already had the March PPI print, it came in at 1.6% y/y, versus 1.5% prior. The trend is modestly higher for the PPI but we remain well down on 2021/22 highs near 10% y/y. Tomorrow we have consumer confidence out.
  • North Korea fired multiple missiles yesterday, the first such firing since Apr 2 (per BBG). The impact on market sentiment though remains minimal at this stage.

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