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1 Month USD/KRW Back Close To 1300, March CPI On Tap Soon

KRW

1 month USD/KRW finished up the NY session close to 1306.50, unwinding most the gains seen during Monday's Asia Pac session. This pulls us back from the 200 day MA (near 1324), while on the downside the 100 day is near 1286. Hence, we broadly remain within recent ranges for the pair. Note onshore spot finished yesterday at 1316.50, so the early impetus is likely to be on the downside.

  • The softer US yield backdrop, particularly post the ISM miss, weighed on broader USD sentiment, although the won underperformed higher beta plays with positive commodity exposure (like NOK and AUD).
  • Locally today the main focus will be on the March CPI print, which is on tap in around 5mins. The market looks for a +0.2% m/m print (0.3% prior), while for y/y the consensus if 4.3%, (4.8% prior). Note core printed at 4.8% prior, but there is no consensus for this outcome.
  • The recent consumer sentiment index showed a further edging down in inflation expectations.
  • Elsewhere, tech related equities underperformed through Monday's session, particularly relative to energy equities. The SOX down by nearly 1%, the MSCI IT off by 0.11%. To recap, the Kospi fell yesterday (-0.18%), with offshore investors offloading $116mn of local equities.

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