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10Y Real Yields At Post Dec FOMC High

US TSYS
  • A decoupling between 10Y Tsy yields and breakevens has seen the breakeven-derived real yield rise 7.5bps to -0.945% (and 12.5bps since the new year).
  • This is the highest since the immediate reaction to the Dec FOMC decision and prior to that since pre-Omicron levels.
  • Both 10Y nominal yields and breakevens remain elevated, but the 10Y nominal yield is up 3.5bps today at 1.665% whereas the breakeven has dipped 4bps to 2.608%.
  • Today’s further rise in the nominal yield takes it to the top end of the post-pandemic range, close to the 1.7% it has struggled to clear in recent months.
  • FOMC minutes tomorrow with markets looking for any discussion on how soon they might hike rates after taper is over and any more detail about balance sheet normalisation.
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