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2023 Fed Rate Expectations Cool Off Friday’s Highs

  • Fed Funds implied hikes are little changed from Fri for 2022 (79bp for Nov, cumulative 141bp to 4.49% Dec) but cool further out with terminal 4.9% in Mar/May’23 (-6/-7.5bps) and 4.53% Dec’23 (-8.5bp) off Friday’s highs.
  • Bullard (’22) on Sat said premature to judge on Dec'22 hike size and 2023 would be more data dependent albeit seeing a bullish case with inflation risks – summary here.
  • A light docket today with no scheduled Fedspeak and the Empire Mfg survey for October headlining, noting that it has been particularly volatile in recent months (going from -1 to +11 to -31 to -1.5 in Sept).

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied rateSource: Bloomberg

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