MNI: GERMANY OCT EXPORTS -2.8% M/M (VS FCST -2.6%)

MNI BRIEF: BOJ Tankan: Business Inflation Expectations Solid

MNI BRIEF: RBA Details Hypothetical Monetary Policy Paths

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BOJ DEC TANKAN LARGE MFG INDEX +14; SEPT 13; MEDIAN +12

MNI: SPAIN NOV HICP +0% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE NOV HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

MNI: SWEDEN NOV UNEMPLOYMENT 7.4%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

2024 Projected Rate Cuts Moderate Slightly

US TSYS
  • Tsys hold firm, inside relatively narrow session range by Tuesday's close. March'24 10Y futures (TYH4) currently +2 at 112-21 vs. 112-24 intraday high on very light volume (TYH4 350k) with European exchanges closed for Boxing Day holiday. Initial technical resistance above at 113-04.5 (Dec 21 high), followed by 113-12+, a Fibonacci projection point. Key short-term support is at 109-31+, the Dec 11 low. Initial firm support is at 111-09+, the Dec 7 high.
  • Limited reaction, if any after FHFA House Price Index comes in weaker than expected at +0.3% (+0.5% est), S&P CoreLogic CS mildly stronger than expected for MoM (0.64% vs. 0.60% est; YoY 4.87% vs. 4.85% est.).
  • Tsy futures bounce (TYH4 +2 at 112-21, FVH4 steady) after the $57B 2Y note auction (91282CJS1) trades through: 4.314% high yield vs. 4.320% WI; 2.68x bid-to-cover vs. 2.54x prior.
  • Indirect take-up climbed back to 61.85% vs. 57.38% prior (5-auction average of 65.2%), directs took 19.51% vs. 23.86% last month (20.05% 5-auction average), primary dealer take-up 18.63%
  • Projected rate cuts for early 2024 holding steady to mildly softer vs. Friday with short end futures weaker: January 2024 cumulative -3.8bp at 5.290%, March 2024 chance of rate cut -81.4% vs. -90.1% late Friday w/ cumulative of -24.1bp at 5.087%, May 2024 pricing in a full 25bp cut with cumulative -49.8bp at 4.829%, June'24 cumulative -75.8bp at 4.570%. Fed terminal at 5.325% in Jan'24.
  • Wednesday Data Calendar: Richmond, Dallas Fed Data; 2Y FRN and 5Y Note Sales
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.