AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

The latest Newspoll from The Australian is showing that the next federal election, which has to be held by 17 May 2025, is looking closer than it has since the last vote in 2022. It still seems a minority Labor government is the most likely outcome but if current trends continue that view becomes more uncertain. The two-party preferred measure is at 51% to 49% in favour of the opposition Coalition.

• The Coalition’s primary vote increased 2pp to 40% in the latest poll taken between November 4 and 8, the first time since the election and above its 35.7% recorded then. According to The Australian, a share at 40% or more makes it “competitive” at the next vote. One Nation appears to be losing support to the Coalition with it polling down 2pp to 5%, consistent with its result at the last election.
• Labor’s primary vote rose 2pp to 33% in the poll, in line with its share in the 2022 election. It seems to have made gains from the Greens and Others who both fell 1pp. The Greens are now down 1pp on its election outcome of 12.2%, while others & independents are 3.5pp lower.
• PM Albanese has been consistently seen as the better PM and while he still is, the gap with opposition leader Dutton has halved from 8pp in October to 4pp this month, narrowest since last election. Albanese was steady on 45% while Dutton rose 4pp to 41%.
• In terms of approval, Albanese’s net rating fell 1pp to -15, his worst since the election, while Dutton’s rose 3pp to -11 to be ahead. In general, respondents are not satisfied with either leader though.