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2s10s Steepening Echoes 2009 Move (But Very Different Situation Today)

GILTS

The UK 2s10s spread is now at 36.4bp, a reversal from a 40bp+ inversion in late September, and back to July 1 levels.

  • The last time UK 2s10s steepened this much in a single session (22.8bp today) was March 2009 - the bottom of the global equity bear market.
  • It's a very different situation now versus then of course, with the re-steepening today occurring due to a continued sell-off of the long-end, versus 2009 when 2Y yields were below 1.5% and headed toward zero amid easy BoE policy.
  • And even a further steepening today would still pale next to the 121bp steepening on Sept 17th 1992, the day after Black Wednesday - see chart.


1-day bp change in UK 2s10sSource: BBG, MNI

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