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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- Poland 2Y bond yield, which had been constantly surging since the start of October 2021 following NBP aggressive rate hikes, has been consolidating lower in the past 10 days after reaching a local high at 3.65%.
- Even though investors previously estimated the NBP terminal rate to be slightly below or at 3%, the upward revision in inflation forecasts amid surging energy prices could prolong the central bank tightening cycle in H1 2022.
- Following Glapinski comments at the latest press conference, the NBP should proceed with at least one 50bps hike in the coming meetings (very likely in February), which would bring the policy rate up to 2.75%
- It is also likely that the NBP will proceed with another 50bps hike at the March or April meeting depending on new inflation and economic data, which would levitate the policy rate up to March 2013 highs (3.25%).
- Poland 2Y yield is currently testing its 50DMA at 3.0460%; a break below that level would open the door for a move down to 3%.
- On the topside, first resistance to watch stands at 3.31%
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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