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3/15-year on-the-run BTPs and 5-year off-the-run BTP

ITALY AUCTION PREVIEW
  • Italy will come to the market this morning to sell 3/5/15-year BTPs (albeit with the 5-year being an off-the-run issue). On offer will be E7.75bln. This is a slightly smaller auction than may have been expected given the 7/50-year syndication held last week (without the syndication 7-year BTPs would have likely been sold today).
  • 0% Apr-24 BTP: The 3-year BTP will be on offer for E3.5-4.0bln. This will be the second auction of the issue after its launch last month where E5.00bln was sold in the first round with a further E1.045bln sold in the second round. This is a rather large auction size for a 3-year BTP reopening, the largest since May 2020's E4.5bln auction which saw a bid-to-cover of 1.34x, the lowest at a reopening for some time. Since October, bid-to-covers for 3-year BTP auctions have all been between 1.40-1.44x (remarkably stable) with the exception of the February reopening of the 0% Jan-24 which saw a bid-to-cover of 1.66x.
  • 1.60% Jun-26 BTP: The off-the-run 5-year bond will be on offer for E1.00-1.75bln. This is the shortest dated off-the-run BTP to be auctioned over the past year outside of the specialist tap operations. Indeed, the last off-the-run bond with a similar maturity to be tapped was the 1.60% Jun-26 BTP in April 2020. That auction saw E1.50bln sold with a bid-to-cover of 1.79x and a further E300mln sold at the second round.
  • 0.95% Mar-37 BTP: Today will see the first reopening of the long 15-year 0.95% Mar-37 BTP since its syndicated launch in January. On offer will be E1.5-2.0bln. January's syndication saw huge demand with order books over E105bln. We would expect strong demand but note that the Netherlands and Spain are both launching new long 15-year bonds today.
  • Timing: Results will be available shortly after the auction closes at 10:00BST.
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