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34bps of hikes over 12-month removed from the peak this week

SONIA
  • Pricing for next week's MPC meeting is currently 64bp (down from 65bp yesterday and after spiking to 73bp following Mann's comments on Monday).
  • 180bp is priced by year-end (from a high of 199bp post-Mann).
  • 248bp priced by year-end (from 258bp at yesterday's close and a peak of 282bp on Monday).
  • Note that since the energy plans started to break on Monday and the testimony of four MPC members ahead of the TSC yesterday, we have now erased 34bp of hikes over the next 12-months.
  • Truss's statement is due imminently but it is questionable how many details we will get as this is not expected to be a formal ministerial statement, and hence there is not expected to be ensuing debate.
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