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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
OIS markets now pricing 43bp for the March Fed meeting hike, up 11+bp on the day.
- There is a bit of a self-fulfilling dynamic as we move toward the March 16 decision. The Fed may be reluctant to hike by a 50bp magnitude, but if the market pricing is there when they go into the meeting, NOT doing so would be too dovish a move at that point.
- The Fed of course will have to consider that amid these tightening financial conditions (real rates higher, Fed funds hiking expectations rising), inflation expectations have been held steady despite overshooting near-term inflation.
- So no reason for them to go dovish vs consensus if the currently priced configuration is helping keep expectations under wraps, at risk of seeing expectations rebound and the Fed falling behind the curve (again?).
OIS Implied Pricing For March FOMC Rate Hike, bpSource: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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