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75bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced

STIR

SONIA futures are flat to +3.0.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~75bp of ’24 cuts vs.~74bp at yesterday’s close.
  • 17.5bp of cuts are priced through the June MPC, equating to ~70% odds of a cut over that horizon.
  • Dovish BoJ comments and a late sell off in Chinese equities allow bonds to rally early on Wednesday, filtering through to GBP STIRs.
  • The local calendar is very light today, with just the minutes of the BoE’s latest FPC meeting due. That shouldn’t be a market mover.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.147-4.3
Jun-245.014-17.5
Aug-244.858-33.2
Sep-244.729-46.1
Nov-244.571-61.9
Dec-244.442-74.8
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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