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A Beat For Pending Home Sales But Doesn’t Change Weak Existing Sale Outlook

US DATA
  • Pending home sales surprisingly increased 1.1% M/M in September (cons -2%) but it does little to improve from the -7% drop in August.
  • Combined with yesterday’s far stronger than expected new home sales (+12.3% vs cons 0.7%), the relative gap between new and (the larger) existing home sales segment has widened further when compared to pre-pandemic levels, and is unlikely to change in the next one-to-two months judging by the pending data.
  • Prices have played a large role here: the median sale price can be noisy but new home sale prices were down -12% Y/Y in September vs +2.8% Y/Y for existing homes.

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