Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
A few views (including MNI's) on potential statement changes:
On tweaks to the opening language on current economic conditions: Morgan Stanley: To acknowledge that recent readings on inflation have softened. Should "highly" be removed from the sentence that it remains "highly attentive to inflation risks," it would also be unexpectedly dovish. Citi: “inflation remains elevated” could be made more nuanced with language like “inflation has declined but remains elevated.” NatWest: potential downgrade to language on payroll gains (from “robust” to “strong”).
- MNI's View: Few to no changes. The July Beige Book suggested little change in economic activity vs the previous edition, but there were some acknowledgements of easing if mixed inflationary pressures. The phrase “inflation remains elevated” will change once the FOMC is prepared to signal it’s comfortable that inflation is headed toward 2% - even with June’s CPI print on the soft side, it’s premature for that yet. A change here would be a dovish surprise, pointing to the FOMC communicating potential for July’s hike to be the last (and as a potential market mover we’ve captured it in our Instant Answers).
On banking conditions: Deutsche: could remove the 1st sentence in the banking paragraph re “sound and resilient”. JPM: Could drop the discussion of the headwinds from credit conditions, but June minutes suggest this is still on the minds of the Committee and staff. UBS: para on banks “can remain as is or get dropped altogether at this point”
- MNI's View: Even with prevailing FOMC sentiment (and the sectoral data itself) seeming to turn more optimistic on the banking sector outlook since June, there is little reason for the FOMC to change the paragraph on banking, which was introduced in the March meeting. Even if this paragraph were dropped, it shouldn’t be construed as a hugely hawkish surprise or signal.
Source: June FOMC Statement
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.