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Tight Range Day For AUD, Ahead Of RBA Decision

AUD

AUD/USD is up off the lows, edging back above 0.7200, from an earlier low of 0.7188. Ranges have been very tight on the day. Cross asset signals have supported the AUD on dips, but we have seen hawkish rate hike bets moderating at the margin ahead of tomorrow’s RBA decision.

  • The futures implied rate for the June meeting is just under 0.63%, down from last's week highs of around 0.66% or so.
  • The Bloomberg consensus is now for a 25bps hike tomorrow, revised lower from the earlier 40bps move expected. This no doubt reflects an increased survey responses compiled by Bloomberg, with 29 estimates now submitted. The median estimate is 0.60%, while the average estimate is skewed higher at 0.68%.
  • Elsewhere, local Australian equities are down, but China/HK are higher by more than 1% higher at this stage. Japan has also turned higher, while US equity futures remain in positive territory at this stage.
  • Iron ore has recovered some ground and is back close to $144/tonne. Oil has recovered from an earlier dip but has flatlined around $120.50/bbl.
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