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A Strong US ISM Mfg Aside From Employment Dipping On Lower Churn

DATA REACT
  • The ISM manufacturing survey was notably stronger than expected in May, rising from 55.4 to 56.1 (cons 54.5) and confounding recent weakness in the regional Fed manufacturing surveys.
  • Details added to the hawkish read, with prices paid only dropping from 84.6 to 82.2 (cons 81.0) whilst new orders increased from 53.5 to 55.1 as they pop higher from two soft months.
  • The main weaker patch of the report was employment, which surprisingly fell into contraction territory as it dipped from 50.9 to 49.6 (52.0). The press release indicated that this could be down to slightly fewer quits/retirements compared to May, which if sustained could help see softer wage growth ahead.
  • 2Y Tsy yields have increased 6.5bps since the release for +9bp son the day, whilst it gives FOMC-dated Fed Funds a jolt higher with a cumulative 102bps for July and the larger reaction further out with 142bps for Sep (+2bp from early today) and 196bps to year-end (+3bps).

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