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Absa Manufacturing PMI Sees Contraction in July

SOUTH AFRICA
MNI (London)
  • SOUTH AFRICA JUL MANUF. PMI 47.6 (FCST 50.3); JUN 52.2
  • The Absa manufacturing PMI fell for the second consecutive month in July, dipping a substantial 4.6 points to 47.6 (vs forecast of 50.3) as new orders fell sharply.
  • This is the lowest since the July 2021 plunge (due to KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng unrest) and below the breakeven point of 50, signalling a contraction in the manufacturing industry.
  • The slide in production was likely the result of widespread electricity shortages in July, as well as a global slowdown in manufacturing as growth outlooks cloud over.
  • This lead expected business conditions to fall for the first time since Q2 2020.
  • The price index saw the slowest increase since the beginning of the year, alluding to easing producer price pressures.
  • Absa note that this data is largely from surveys prior to the announcement of energy reforms, which saw the ZAR outperform on Friday and should improve optimism going forward.
  • As such, there was no real market reaction to the data, as the SARB is not due to meet again until September.


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