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Activity data due at 7:00GMT

UK DATA
  • UK activity data for November is due to be released at 7:00GMT.
  • Consensus looks for monthly GDP to fall by -0.2%M/M with the vast majority of economists looking for a -0.3% to -0.1% print.
  • A similar fall is seen for IP and manufacturing with a -0.1%M/M fall for services and -0.3%M/M fall penciled in for construction.
  • Following the December MPC meeting markets priced in a similar 42bp for the February meeting to that priced in by markets now and ignoring the immediate aftermath of the meeting we have traded in a 41-48bp range.
  • Terminal pricing has been much changed, however, and going into the data a cumulative 95bp of hikes are priced by August down from a peak of around 132bp in the period between Christmas and New Year.
  • We would expect the December pricing to remain relatively sticky but the terminal rate is likely to be more sensitive to any surprises in the numbers today.
  • The data remain important, but come ahead of next week's crucial labour market data due Tuesday and inflation data due Wednesday.
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