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CAPITAL GOODS: AGCO (AGCO Baa2/BBB-[P]/NR): 4Q24 Results

CAPITAL GOODS
USBulletCredit BulletsNorth America

AGCO expects another challenging year for the industry with demand still softening. It managed to reduce inventories over 2024. It sees 18% revenue declines this year: that’s at the low end of CNH’s agricultural outlook despite AGCO expecting to grow market share. This is not really an incrementally negative release with expectations already depressed.

  • AGCO reported revenue 8% below consensus.
  • Adj. EBIT beat by 4% thanks to margins 1.2ppts ahead at 9.9%. It also took an impairment charge. Management cited a focus on cost controls.
  • FCF of $680mn missed expectations of $880mn; we expect analysts had more favourable WC assumptions. We see net leverage at 1.7x down from 2.4x sequentially and up from 0.6x YoY.
  • FY25 revenue and EPS guidance were in line with consensus.
  • Webcast replay https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/gr2cvktn/.
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AGCO expects another challenging year for the industry with demand still softening. It managed to reduce inventories over 2024. It sees 18% revenue declines this year: that’s at the low end of CNH’s agricultural outlook despite AGCO expecting to grow market share. This is not really an incrementally negative release with expectations already depressed.

  • AGCO reported revenue 8% below consensus.
  • Adj. EBIT beat by 4% thanks to margins 1.2ppts ahead at 9.9%. It also took an impairment charge. Management cited a focus on cost controls.
  • FCF of $680mn missed expectations of $880mn; we expect analysts had more favourable WC assumptions. We see net leverage at 1.7x down from 2.4x sequentially and up from 0.6x YoY.
  • FY25 revenue and EPS guidance were in line with consensus.
  • Webcast replay https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/gr2cvktn/.