Ahead of Aug unemployment and earnings......>

UK DATA: Ahead of Aug unemployment and earnings data release at 0930BST, a few

notes on where consensus stands, from our Data Team: 

- Analysts Forecast Unchanged Jobless Rate (4.0%). Analysts have correctly

called the Aug rate eight times in the last 16 years, including last year.

- Between 2002 and 2017 analysts overestimated the headline jobless rate 5 times

(avg miss: -0.12pp) and underestimated the result 3 times (avg upside miss:

+0.13pp). But Aug risks appear to be tilted slightly to the upside, with 6 of 22

analysts polled by MNI predicting a rise to 4.1%.

- Since 2010, analysts have got total earnings spot-on 3 times, overestimating 3

times(avg data miss: -0.23pp) and underestimating once (+0.2pp).

- Regular earnings growth (MNI median: 2.6% 3M/3M and 2.9% ex-bonus) has proved

marginally harder to call, correctly forecasting the result on just two

occasions. Again, there was a bias towards overestimating ex-bonus growth, doing

so five times (average data miss: -0.20pp), while underestimating growth twice

(average data miss: +0.2pp).