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Ahead of tomorrow's Swedish CPI, analysts....>

SWEDEN
SWEDEN: Ahead of tomorrow's Swedish CPI, analysts at Danske expect the vast
majority of price components to rebound after widespread sales in January - this
is the normal seasonal pattern of course. CPIF and CPIF excluding energy will
move closely in tandem as energy net moves just slightly more than the rest.
Nordea forecast prices to have increased by 1.7% m/m, but February figures may
have been boosted by a temporary run-up ahead of stricter regulations imposed
from 1 March - hence we await March figures before drawing any big conclusions.
SEB think the inflation rate is expected to remain stable in February with the
spread to the Riksbank's forecast expected to remain unchanged. CPIF ex energy
slowed to 1.5% y/y in January, 0.25%-points below the Riksbank's estimate.
TD look for CPIF to slip further in Feb to well below the Riksbank's forecast
from the Feb MPR of 1.85%. Behind the headline, we look for "core CPI" (CPIF
ex-food and energy) to hold steady at 1.1% y/y, but for more downside to come
from food prices (as we saw in the EZ) and energy prices.

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