AIB Results Tmrw: Revenues And Asset Quality

AIB (AIBG ID) reports 4Q23 results tmrw look set to focus on the revenue outlook and asset quality metrics.

• Revenue outlook: AIB upgraded guidance here at each quarter last year and revenue consensus rose 15% in the second half alone, as rate tailwinds pushed the business forward. However, FY24 revenue estimates are for a 3% drop, as those tailwinds abate and deposit competition increases.
• Asset quality: credit losses expectations have improved across FY23, in common with many retail-oriented peers but the FY24 outlook will be key. Consensus has losses up 25% (still barely 35bp of loans).
• Bank of Ireland (BIRG ID) results on 26-Feb saw the equity drop on the day, on a weak revenue outlook and higher credit losses (CRE-driven), even with a big equity buyback announcement.
• AIBG equity is up 11% YTD (SX7P +5% and BIRG equity broadly flat) and its cash curve has tightened (20-30bp, similarly to its local peer), so there is a good amount of expectation built in here. AIBG is still c.40% state-owned.

Results are 0700 (London time) and conf call is 0900 at https://channel.royalcast.com/AIB/#!/AIB/20240306_1.