ANALYSIS: BOT/DOT Stats Show Railways Top Freight Mode

--Eye on Freight TSI For Economic Turns

By Vicki Schmelzer

     NEW YORK (MNI) - Railways remain the top method of moving freight across

the United States, with volumes well above trucking and pipelines, according to

a Bureau of Transportation Statistics' report released Monday, by the U.S.

Department of Transportation. 

     From June 2009 to December 2016, railway freight traffic rose 50.6%, the

report said. 

     "The seasonally-adjusted indexed modal data that comprises BTS' Freight

Transportation Services Index (TSI) shows that rail intermodal was followed by

trucking at 37.8%, pipeline at 29.6%, waterborne at 23.2%, and air freight at

21.7%. During this period the freight TSI rose 29.7%," the DOT said.

     "The sole exception was rail carloads which declined 0.8%," the DOT said

noting that this went hand in hand with a decline in coal shipments. 

     "Total coal shipped by Class I railroads peaked in 2008 at 878.6 million

tons, dropped to 787.6 in 2009, and continued to fall to 638.1 million tons in

2015," the BTS said.

     As background, the BTS's Freight TSI "measures the month-to-month changes

in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles,

which are combined into one index."

     "The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation

industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways,

pipelines and air freight" and "is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasons

from month-to-month comparisons," the BTS said.

     The BTS keeps a close eye on the Freight TSI because the index "tends to

turn in advance of slowdowns and accelerations in economic growth." 

     As example, the BTA pointed to the two most recent U.S. economic

accelerations, from June 2009 to December 2012 and then from July 2013 to

December 2014. 

     The Freight TSI reached a peak in December 2011 of 115.1 "and turned

downwards - 12 months in advance of an economic deceleration that began in

December 2012," the BTS said. 

     In October 2012, the freight TSI troughed at 110.2, "before the growth

cycle peaked in December 2012 and turned downwards (decelerated)," the report

said. 

     "Historically, the freight TSI has not hit a trough and turned upwards

before the onset of an economic deceleration," the BTS noted.

     The Freight TSI moved higher in 2013 and peaked in November 2014 at 123.4.

The index subsequently turned down at the same time as the growth cycle. The

index bottomed at 120.3 in March 2016, before firming in fits and starts into

year-end.

     The BTS latest Freight TSI was 126.8 for May 2017, a new high for the

series, available since 2000. 

--MNI New York Bureau; tel: +1 212-669-6438; email: vicki.schmelzer@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,M$$FX$,MN$FX$]