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Analyst CPI Reaction Snapshot

US

Analyst

Summary

Barclays

Now expect a fifth 75bp hike in Dec (50bp prior), hitting 5.0-5.25% in Feb (4.5-4.75% prior)

BofA

Strengthens case to stay hawkish – clear signal with labor market to raise rates significantly further

BMO

Cements expectations of at least 75bp in Nov, heightens speculation on another 75bp in Dec

BNP

A red-hot US CPI release tilts the risks toward the need for a more aggressive Fed response

CIBC

Fed could front load rate hikes by more than previously thought in Nov

Commerz

Continue to expect 75bp in Nov, and forecast rates to peak at 5%

GS

Unchanged rate path: Still expect 75bp hike in Nov before slowing to 50bp Dec and 25bp Feb

ING

Ensures at least another 75bp rate hike in Nov and 50bp in Dec

JPM

May not see noticeably softer CPI rents for at least several months

MS

Unlikely to alter path but more sustained rents pressure could see 75bp Dec hike contemplated

NatWest

75bp Nov hike sealed, keeps up pressure to stay aggressive into Dec meeting

RBC

See Fed Funds reaching 4.5-4.75% early 2023 as price pressures stand too high and broad

Scotia

Market pricing a terminal 5% in Q1 makes sense with information to date

TD

Continue to expect 4.75-5% in Mar’23, above terminal implied by Sept dot plot

Unicredit

No compelling evidence of monthly core CPI consistent with inflation moving to target

Wells Fargo

Locks in another 75bp in Nov but still believe inflation will slow enough for 50bp in Dec

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