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Analyst CPI Reaction Snapshot





Now expect a fifth 75bp hike in Dec (50bp prior), hitting 5.0-5.25% in Feb (4.5-4.75% prior)


Strengthens case to stay hawkish – clear signal with labor market to raise rates significantly further


Cements expectations of at least 75bp in Nov, heightens speculation on another 75bp in Dec


A red-hot US CPI release tilts the risks toward the need for a more aggressive Fed response


Fed could front load rate hikes by more than previously thought in Nov


Continue to expect 75bp in Nov, and forecast rates to peak at 5%


Unchanged rate path: Still expect 75bp hike in Nov before slowing to 50bp Dec and 25bp Feb


Ensures at least another 75bp rate hike in Nov and 50bp in Dec


May not see noticeably softer CPI rents for at least several months


Unlikely to alter path but more sustained rents pressure could see 75bp Dec hike contemplated


75bp Nov hike sealed, keeps up pressure to stay aggressive into Dec meeting


See Fed Funds reaching 4.5-4.75% early 2023 as price pressures stand too high and broad


Market pricing a terminal 5% in Q1 makes sense with information to date


Continue to expect 4.75-5% in Mar’23, above terminal implied by Sept dot plot


No compelling evidence of monthly core CPI consistent with inflation moving to target

Wells Fargo

Locks in another 75bp in Nov but still believe inflation will slow enough for 50bp in Dec

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