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Free AccessAnalyst CPI Reaction Snapshot
Analyst | Summary |
Barclays | Now expect a fifth 75bp hike in Dec (50bp prior), hitting 5.0-5.25% in Feb (4.5-4.75% prior) |
BofA | Strengthens case to stay hawkish – clear signal with labor market to raise rates significantly further |
BMO | Cements expectations of at least 75bp in Nov, heightens speculation on another 75bp in Dec |
BNP | A red-hot US CPI release tilts the risks toward the need for a more aggressive Fed response |
CIBC | Fed could front load rate hikes by more than previously thought in Nov |
Commerz | Continue to expect 75bp in Nov, and forecast rates to peak at 5% |
GS | Unchanged rate path: Still expect 75bp hike in Nov before slowing to 50bp Dec and 25bp Feb |
ING | Ensures at least another 75bp rate hike in Nov and 50bp in Dec |
JPM | May not see noticeably softer CPI rents for at least several months |
MS | Unlikely to alter path but more sustained rents pressure could see 75bp Dec hike contemplated |
NatWest | 75bp Nov hike sealed, keeps up pressure to stay aggressive into Dec meeting |
RBC | See Fed Funds reaching 4.5-4.75% early 2023 as price pressures stand too high and broad |
Scotia | Market pricing a terminal 5% in Q1 makes sense with information to date |
TD | Continue to expect 4.75-5% in Mar’23, above terminal implied by Sept dot plot |
Unicredit | No compelling evidence of monthly core CPI consistent with inflation moving to target |
Wells Fargo | Locks in another 75bp in Nov but still believe inflation will slow enough for 50bp in Dec |
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