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MEXICO: Analysts Expect 50bp Banxico Rate Cut This Week – Citi Survey

MEXICO
EM BulletMexicoBulletEmerging Market NewsNorth America
  • Analysts now expect a 50bp policy rate cut to 9.50% at tomorrow’s Banxico monetary policy meeting, according to the latest Citi survey of economists, which has just been published. In the previous survey on Jan 21, analysts had been forecasting a 25bp cut. The policy rate is seen ending this year at 8.50%, unchanged from the previous survey, falling to 7.50% in 2026.
    • The year-end headline inflation forecast for this year edged down by 1bp to 3.90%, while the end-2026 estimate declined by 5bp to 3.72%.
    • The core CPI forecast for end-2025 rose to 3.74%, from 3.68%, while the end-2026 core CPI estimate was unchanged at 3.60%.
    • Meanwhile, GDP growth forecasts were unchanged, with analysts continuing to expect GDP to rise by 1.00% this year and 1.80% in 2026.
    • The 2025 year-end USDMXN forecast rose to 21.00, from 20.95.
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  • Analysts now expect a 50bp policy rate cut to 9.50% at tomorrow’s Banxico monetary policy meeting, according to the latest Citi survey of economists, which has just been published. In the previous survey on Jan 21, analysts had been forecasting a 25bp cut. The policy rate is seen ending this year at 8.50%, unchanged from the previous survey, falling to 7.50% in 2026.
    • The year-end headline inflation forecast for this year edged down by 1bp to 3.90%, while the end-2026 estimate declined by 5bp to 3.72%.
    • The core CPI forecast for end-2025 rose to 3.74%, from 3.68%, while the end-2026 core CPI estimate was unchanged at 3.60%.
    • Meanwhile, GDP growth forecasts were unchanged, with analysts continuing to expect GDP to rise by 1.00% this year and 1.80% in 2026.
    • The 2025 year-end USDMXN forecast rose to 21.00, from 20.95.