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Analysts On Today's Monthly GDP Report

CANADA
  • BMO: “This is yet one more crystal clear sign that the BoC should be done hiking. The potential for a second consecutive negative quarterly GDP reading will cause recession chatter to ramp up quickly. The soft economic backdrop, which still has downside, will drive inflation down over time...it's just a question of how quickly.”
  • CIBC: “The fact that this weakness is happening at a time when population growth has been so strong, and before the majority of homeowners have yet to be exposed to higher interest rates, is a clear signal that rates will have to come down next year to avoid an even worse outcome (we currently expect the first move lower in Q2 next year).”
  • National: “When you factor in the demographic boom, the sluggishness of the Canadian economy becomes more apparent, as evidenced by GDP per capita, which plunged in the third quarter, posting a 2.4% year-on-year decline, the first time this has occurred outside of a recession. And the next few quarters do not look any rosier”
  • RBC: “The BoC is still concerned about broader inflation pressures running above the 2% target. But evidence continues to build that go-forward inflation pressures are easing as the economic growth backdrop softens. We don't expect additional interest rate hikes from the BoC as long as that continues.”
  • TD: “Higher interest rates are certainly doing their part to tamp down excess demand, and we continue to expect below-trend growth for the next couple of quarters.” […] “That said, [the BoC has] voiced their need to remain vigilant, especially as core inflation remains at uncomfortable levels. Employment and wages data later this week will be on watch, as this segment of the economy continues to show relative strength.”
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