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Analysts Skewed To Unemployment Rate Upside Surprise

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Released tomorrow, the unemployment rate is seen holding at 3.5% in August after surprising lower last month with 3.50% (cons 3.6%) for just a tenth off multi-decade lows seen in April.
  • Analysts are skewed to a higher reading though (with NWM a clear standout), and the skew correctly predicted last month’s surprise lower.
  • Primary dealer analyst estimates around AHE are more balanced though, with general consensus for 0.3% M/M and then two-sided, limited calls for 0.2% and 0.4% M/M.


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