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Antipodean FX Slips Amid Turn Lower For Crude

FOREX
  • The USD index stands in modest positive territory on Wednesday as we approach the APAC crossover amid a turn lower for crude futures and a downtick for equity indices. Price action has weighed the most on Antipodean currencies with both AUD and NZD sliding around 0.65% on the session. Higher front-end yields in the US have supported the dollar, also placing some renewed pressure on the Japanese Yen, with USDJPY grinding back above the 149.00 handle to settle around 149.30. The FOMC minutes prompted some very marginal greenback selling off the highs.
  • AUDUSD remains bearish following last week’s breach of support at 0.6331, despite the broad strength posted across the past three sessions. Last week’s break of support confirmed a range breakout and a resumption of the downtrend that started early February. This signals scope for 0.6215 next, a Fibonacci projection.
  • As noted, the USDJPY uptrend remains intact. A clear break of the 150.00 handle would reinforce bullish conditions. The bull trigger is 150.16, the Oct 3 high.
  • In emerging markets, both the South African rand and the Mexican peso extended their strong recoveries this week, remaining largely unfazed by the ongoing developments in the middle east.
  • Focus turns to US inflation data on Thursday, where ex-food and energy (core) CPI is expected to print 0.3% M/M in September for the 2nd month in a row, still firmly higher than the unrounded 0.16% M/M readings in both June and July. Even in the case of an upside shock, this CPI report is unlikely to spur the FOMC to hike at the November meeting, and a December hike would probably require the October and November inflation prints to also show insufficient progress on inflation.
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