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ANZ note that "it was one-way traffic for......>

KIWI
KIWI: ANZ note that "it was one-way traffic for the kiwi last week as domestic
considerations weighed heavily. We certainly find it hard to get overly upbeat
here and our medium-term bias remains bearish. In fact, one of the last bastions
of support for the NZD - export commodity prices - is now looking a little shaky
too. However, there are some signs that the market has found a near-term base
just below 67 cents. Some technical indicators suggest kiwi is now oversold and
we would not be surprised to see short positioning lightened into US holidays
and the Northern Hemisphere summer. That opens the door to the potential for a
pop higher in NZD/USD near term, which is something we'd look to fade."
- On AUD/NZD ANZ note that "it is fair to say that the RBA is not as dovish as
its RBNZ cousin right now and the currency market has reacted accordingly, with
AUD/NZD flirting with 1.10 at one point. The cross is looking closer to 'fair'
around these levels, so we don't have an overly strong view of near-term
direction here, especially with NZD positioning complicating the picture. That
said, we do feel this cross is now in a higher trading range and any dips below
1.09 is something we'd look to buy."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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