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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NEW ZEALAND
NZ February ANZ business data was overall quite robust with the outlook rising to 29.5 from 25.6, highest since June 2021, and while confidence fell to 34.7 from 36.6, it is still higher than December. The good news is that inflation expectations eased 0.3pp to 4.0%, the lowest in over 2 years, but cost and wage expectations remain elevated and as a result pricing intentions remain too high. The RBNZ said yesterday that rates need to stay restrictive for some time to ensure inflation returns to target, and this survey data corroborates that view.
NZ ANZ business activity vs confidence
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- ANZ notes that the own activity measure is consistent with “low but positive annual GDP growth”.
- 73.5% of firms expect to see their costs rise in the coming 3 months, down from 75.6% in January, but ANZ says that this needs to be below 50% to signal a low inflation environment. While the series is below its peak, it has been very sluggish to ease. But the magnitude of the expected increase over the next 3-months eased to 3.1% from 3.4%. The retail, agriculture and construction sectors all reported freight disruption since Q4 2023.
- Pricing intentions 3-months ahead moderated 0.2pp to 1.9%. This measure has also been slow to decline. 48.2% of firms intend to increase prices down 1.5pp from January.
- Employment intentions improved to their highest since April 2022 driven by the services sector. 79% of firms still expect to increase wages over the year ahead with the expected rise 3.4%.
NZ ANZ business price/cost measures
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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