April FOMC outlook from Morgan Stanley:.........>

FED: April FOMC outlook from Morgan Stanley: Expect the announcement of a

flexible-duration $150bln/month Tsy purchase program, under which the Fed can

increase or scale back longer/shorter duration purchases over time as needed.

- NY Fed to announce purchase schedule that includes somewhat more long-duration

Tsys, while continuing some of the liquidity-focused purchases as well. Also, to

lower MBS buys, to up to $100bln/month.

- Statement: To communicate that the new Treasury purchase program is intended

to improve the transmission of the accommodative policy stance by supporting the

smooth functioning of Tsy markets and by easing financial conditions. Policy

guidance to retain vague language for now.

- IOER: A coin toss, perhaps 60/40 in favour of adjustment.

- Future action: To increase the size of assets by an additional ~65%, or $4trn,

with balance sheet hitting about $12trillion ~ 50% of GDP by year-end 2021.

- Strengthened fwd guidance as early as June FOMC: current stance to remain

until the unemp rate falls below a designated level (~4.5%) and/or inflation

evolves in a way that is convincingly consistent with the symmetric 2% goal.