April FOMC outlook from TD: Not expecting......>

FED: April FOMC outlook from TD:  Not expecting significant new policy action at

this meeting, nor specific new guidance on QE. Tone will almost certainly remain

dovish, with Fed emphasizing "committed to use its full range of tools".

- Statement: No specifics on forward rate guidance; some QE specifics possible

but most likely that March 23 wording will largely be repeated. Could add

(though don't expect) increased slack likely to add downward pressure on infl.

- Press Conference: Powell to reiterate many points from April 9 webcast; that

Fed's role is secondary to fiscal stimulus at a time like this; that Treasury

has granted lending, not spending powers to Fed.

- Don't expect specificity on how long at lower bound, but likely point to

downward pressure on inflation (from econ weakness + plunge in oil prices).

- IOER: 5bps hike (and +5bps with ON RRP).

- Future action: No further reductions in funds rate. Balance sheet to reach

$12trn by year-end. Further easing of terms for various programs, including MLF.

- Later this year, expect some form of average infl targeting and YCC focused on

short-to-intermediate part of the curve, to reinforce dovish forward guidance.