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April Retail Sales, BRL Consolidates Recent Advance

BRAZIL
  • DI swap rate contracts jumped substantially on Tuesday, with the price action being largely attributed to the broader moves in core fixed income markets as well as potential profit taking dynamics and risk adjustment ahead of the Fed decision later today.
  • Elsewhere the Brazilian real consolidated its strong performance in recent sessions, trading close to the best levels in a year. It can be expected that BRL is set for another low volatility session ahead of the FOMC. Today’s retail sales report is unlikely to prompt a significant reaction due to the market’s focus on international drivers. Data is due at 1300BST/0800ET:
    • April Retail Sales M/m, est. 0.3%, prior 0.8%
    • April Retail Sales Y/y, est. 0.8%, prior 3.2%
    • April Retail Sales Broad M/m, est. -2.2%, prior 3.6%
    • April Retail Sales Broad Y/y, est. 2.0%, prior 8.8%
  • Executive secretary of the Finance Ministry and government nominee to the central bank board Gabriel Galipolo highlighted this year’s appreciation of the real at an event Tuesday. He also added that long-term interest rates have gradually declined, as well as inflation projections, which is a sign that the market’s scepticism in relation to the government has eased. (BBG)

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