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Asia Sovs Little Changed, BI Rate Decision Shortly

ASIA RATES
DataEM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News

Asian EM sovs are mostly steady today, INDON is outperforming PHILIP curve as we await the BI rate decision due out a bit later today.

  • Bank Indonesia meet for the July rate decision and will likely keep the key rate at 6.25% as inflation remains well within the 1.5-3.5% band and the rupiah has strengthened since the last meeting. However, FX stability will remain the central bank's focus and rates are likely to be unchanged until the Fed eases and the IDR has strengthened further and consistently.
  • See MNI's BI Preview here
  • The INDON curve has bull-steepened since the last BI rate decision on June 20, with yields -20bps to +2bps , while the IDR is 1.90% higher over the same period.
  • The PHILIP curves has underperformed the INDON over the past month, with yields 5-15bps lower, there has been better buying through the 5-7yr part of the curve. We are little changed today.
  • The PH-US 5yr spread is trading towards the widest levels since early 2023, while the ID-US 5yr spread is trading back at June levels.
  • Cross-asset: Ahead of BI today the USD/IDR is 0.33% lower at 16,127, while the USD/PHP is little changed at 58.364. In equities the JCI is unchanged, while the PSEi is down 0.50%.
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Asian EM sovs are mostly steady today, INDON is outperforming PHILIP curve as we await the BI rate decision due out a bit later today.

  • Bank Indonesia meet for the July rate decision and will likely keep the key rate at 6.25% as inflation remains well within the 1.5-3.5% band and the rupiah has strengthened since the last meeting. However, FX stability will remain the central bank's focus and rates are likely to be unchanged until the Fed eases and the IDR has strengthened further and consistently.
  • See MNI's BI Preview here
  • The INDON curve has bull-steepened since the last BI rate decision on June 20, with yields -20bps to +2bps , while the IDR is 1.90% higher over the same period.
  • The PHILIP curves has underperformed the INDON over the past month, with yields 5-15bps lower, there has been better buying through the 5-7yr part of the curve. We are little changed today.
  • The PH-US 5yr spread is trading towards the widest levels since early 2023, while the ID-US 5yr spread is trading back at June levels.
  • Cross-asset: Ahead of BI today the USD/IDR is 0.33% lower at 16,127, while the USD/PHP is little changed at 58.364. In equities the JCI is unchanged, while the PSEi is down 0.50%.