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Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker In Context

US DATA
  • The Atlanta Fed’s wage growth tracker held steady in January at 6.1% Y/Y on a 3-month smoothed basis but it still down from highs of 6.7% in the summer [yellow line below].
  • It remains solidly above the 4.5-5% seen in both monthly average hourly earnings from the payrolls report (down from 4.8% to 4.4% Y/Y in January) and ECI (both 5.1% Y/Y in Q4), but this isn’t an unusually large gap between ECI measures [grey bars].
  • As for latest drivers, the tracker points to some further moderation in job switchers (from 7.7 to 7.3% Y/Y) whilst job stayers wage growth edged a tenth higher (5.3 to 5.4%) but broadly maintains a similar trend.

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