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AU/US 10-Year Differential Holding Range

AUSSIE BONDS

The AU/US 10-year yield differential is 7bp narrower at -18bp as ACGBs outperform US Tsys after the US unemployment rate printed a lower-than-expected 3.5% (3.6% expected) ahead of the Easter break.

  • AU/US 10-year yield differential is virtually unchanged from the level prevailing before the RBA shifted dovishly at the March meeting.
  • Since then, the 10-year yield differential has traded as low as -32bp (cycle low) on the RBA March decision and as high as -6bp ahead of the Easter holiday as US Tsys reacted positively to misses on ISM Manufacturing and Services.
  • The onset of global banking concerns in mid-March saw the 10-year yield differential move away from its cycle low as the AU/US short-end differential shifted dramatic higher. The AU/US 1y3m swap differential is currently -70bp, still around 75bp higher than pre-banking crisis levels.
  • A simple regression of the AU/US cash 10-year yield differential versus the AU/US 1Y3M swap differential over the current tightening cycle suggests that the 10-year yield differential is currently around 14bp too negative (i.e. -18bp Vs. fair value at -4bp).

Figure 1: AU/US Cash 10-Year Yield Differential (%) Vs. AU/US 1Y3M Swap Differential (%)



Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

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