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AUSSIE-KIWI: AUD/NZD has added 15 pips, sticking to a tight range outside of
early indicative hours, last NZ$1.0675. Interesting to note that NZD has
experienced some modest underperformance vs. AUD (after the recent move lower in
the cross) even though China's Commerce Ministry announced that it is launching
an anti-dumping investigation on imported barley from Australia. Some suggested
that this will be interpreted as retaliation for the AU-U.S. security deal that
was signed over the weekend. The Antipodeans came under broader pressure by the
latest ratcheting up in trade war tensions over the weekend, with hawkish trade
comments from U.S. VP Pence re: China, while the APEC summit failed to result in
a common communique, with trade war matters dividing the room.
- Bulls have failed to consolidate > NZ$1.0700 in recent sessions & need to
reclaim the figure to open up a series of recent intraday highs between
NZ$1.0747 & NZ$1.7667, with the 21-DMA at NZ$1.0764 layered in-between. Bears
look to the Nov 14 low at NZ$1.0613, ahead of the Apr 18 low at NZ$1.0576.
- With a lack of tier 1 NZ data due this week, focus will fall on the AU docket,
headlined by the RBA Nov meeting mins & a speech from RBA Gov. Lowe Tuesday.