Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUD/NZD remains locked in an ascending channel, despite easing off fresh cycle highs yesterday. The recent rally has been capped in close proximity to the 76.4% Fibo retracement of the Jun 2 - Jul 10 sell-off, but the short-term trend is still bullish. Although the pace of the rally slowed at the start of the week, after the formation of a Doji candlestick last Friday, bearish hopes for a close below the 50-DMA didn't come to fruition and topside impetus picked up. Momentum indicators suggest that there is scope for further appreciation, with RSI failing to cross above the 70 (overbought) treshold in the recent days. A break above the aforementioned Fibo level at NZ$1.0807 would turn focus to NZ$1.0881, the YtD/21-month high printed on Jun 2. Bears need to see a retreat under the 50-DMA (NZ$1.0691) and Jul 27 low (NZ$1.0672) before looking to a deeper pullback, towards Jul 10 low of NZ$1.0566.
- The NZD has come under pressure towards the end of this week, after two ANZ sentiment gauges (Biz. Confidence & Cons. Confidence) edged lower, suggesting that the post-lockdown recovery in NZ economic sentiment is topping out.
- In the grand scheme of things, central bank dynamics favour AUD over its peer from across the Tasman. The RBA's messaging did acknowledge benefits stemming from a lower AUD, but officials speaking on the matter (Gov Lowe & Asst Gov Kent) noted that the currency trades in line with fundamentals. Meanwhile, at their latest policy meeting the RBNZ noted that a stronger NZD was placing "pressure on export earnings", while also being more "open-minded" about unconventional MonPol tools such as negative interest rates than colleagues from the Martin Place
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.