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AUD/USD Holding Above 0.6400, Even As Yield Spreads Hit Fresh Wides

AUD

AUD/USD is holding above 0.6400 for now (last 0.6400/05), with the A$ seeing some outperformance against the majors, as the USD starts the week on a firmer footing. AU yields continue to lag US moves though, with spreads moving to fresh cyclical wides. The AU-US 2yr spread for government bond yields is -123bps, while the 10yr spread is back to -28bps.

  • Just printed retail sales data hasn't impacted sentiment. The print coming in a touch better than expected (0.6%, versus 0.5% forecast). This continues to suggest a resilient consumer spending backdrop at face value.
  • Private sector credit figures printed as expected (0.7% m/m, 9.4% y/y). Earlier the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge ticked higher in y/y terms to 5.2%, but this metric remains below the official inflation measure.
  • US equity futures are lower, but AUD/JPY is still higher at this stage. We were last at 94.80/85, +0.25% on NY closing levels from last week. Higher US yields are providing support for USD/JPY.
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