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AUDUSD Range Trading, Retail Sales Tuesday’s Focus


AUDUSD traded between its high of 0.6666 and low of 0.6634 over Monday. It is currently around 0.6650. Aussie underperformed most of the G10 except for kiwi and yen. The USD index fell 0.3%.

  • AUDUSD remains bearish and the recent recovery seems to be corrective. 50-day EMA resistance of 0.6764 remains intact but a clear break would signal the possibility of a stronger short-term recovery. Initial support is at 0.6625.
  • Aussie is up 0.7% versus the yen to around 87.50. It is 0.2% higher against the kiwi to 1.0732. But down 0.3% against the euro to 0.6159 and -0.4% versus the pound to 0.5413.
  • Equity markets were stronger on Monday with the S&P up 0.2% and the Eurostoxx +0.9%. The VIX was down around 1pp to 20.6%. Oil prices rallied on better risk sentiment and Brent is up 4.1% to $78.10/bbl. Copper is up 0.6% and iron ore is up to $121/t.
  • Retail sales are published today and are expected to rise a moderate 0.2% in February. The series is nominal and so currently a large part of any growth is due to inflation.

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