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Aug Core CPI Hits 19%, NBH to Remain Aggressive

HUNGARY
MNI (London)

HUNGARY AUG CPI +1.8% M/M (FCST +1.9%); JUL +2.3% M/M
HUNGARY AUG CPI +15.6% Y/Y (FCST +15.9%); JUL +13.7% Y/Y

  • Hungarian inflation continued to surge in August, accelerating by 1.9pp to +15.6% y/y, whilst easing 0.5pp to a robust +1.8% m/m.
  • Core inflation surprised to the upside, rising a hot 2.3pp to 19% y/y in August. This confirms another hefty hike at the Sept 27 meeting following 100bp to 11.75% in August.
  • Selling pressure on HUF has been rising this morning, as markets remain focused on the softer-than-expected headline print.
  • Food and consumables were the key drivers, with food up 3.3% m/m (+30.9% y/y) and consumer durables up 1.2% m/m (+14.8% y/y). The small 0.3% m/m uptick in motor fuels largely reflects a change to fuel price regulation.
  • September data will reveal the effects of the change in energy prices for August under the latest pricing.
  • Central and Eastern European economies are experiencing significantly stronger CPI rates than Western Europe, due to more dependent economic ties with Russia and Ukraine and higher exposure to agricultural commodity inflation.

Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office

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