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August Economic Activity Data Expected To Dip

COLOMBIA
  • DANE is scheduled to publish economic activity data for August, which is expected to come in at 0.5% Y/y, down from a prior reading of 1.2% in July. Analysts note that tight monetary conditions, negative sentiment indicators and government policies remain headwinds as well as El Nino providing a downside risk. The results point to weak GDP growth in the third quarter.
  • In the latest BanRep minutes, the board noted that economic activity has “continued to decelerate, consistent with the technical staff’s projections” which is confirmed by high-frequency indicators whose demand components register a steep drop in investment, while supply-side activities presenting the greatest adjustment include manufacturing and construction.
  • However, the minutes detailed that overall “economic activity continues at higher levels than those that would have been observed had the pre-pandemic growth trend continued. This is reflected in a dynamic job market that continues to register employment growth, with unemployment rates below those of the past five years”.
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