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August Exports On Solid Footing,  Country Detail Shows Double Digit Y/Y Pace

SOUTH KOREA
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South Korea's first 20-days of trade data for August showed continued improvement in export growth. We rose 18.5% y/y for the first 20-days. There was no day count effect, with daily average exports up 18.5% y/y as well.

  • The first chart below plots this daily average export growth y/y, versus full month export growth. It points to further improvement for the whole of August. The first 20-days print of August was the strongest outcome since March 2022.
  • The detail showed chip exports at 42.5% y/y, versus 57.5% in July. Vehicle exports were up to, +7.9%y/y (prior 1.8%), while ships surged to 79%y/y from -49.1% prior.
  • Exports to the US rose 18%y/y, from 13.4% prior, while to China we saw 16.3%y/y, down slightly from July's 20.4% pace. Exports to the EU were also firm in y/y terms.
  • Imports were 10.1%y/y for the first 20-days, versus 14.2% y/y prior. The trade deficit was -$1.47bn, but this does tend to improve in the final 10days of the month.
  • The resilient export trend should given the BoK comfort that a rate cut tomorrow is not needed in the near term to boost the growth outlook.

Fig 1: South Korea Export Trend Improved Further In August

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South Korea's first 20-days of trade data for August showed continued improvement in export growth. We rose 18.5% y/y for the first 20-days. There was no day count effect, with daily average exports up 18.5% y/y as well.

  • The first chart below plots this daily average export growth y/y, versus full month export growth. It points to further improvement for the whole of August. The first 20-days print of August was the strongest outcome since March 2022.
  • The detail showed chip exports at 42.5% y/y, versus 57.5% in July. Vehicle exports were up to, +7.9%y/y (prior 1.8%), while ships surged to 79%y/y from -49.1% prior.
  • Exports to the US rose 18%y/y, from 13.4% prior, while to China we saw 16.3%y/y, down slightly from July's 20.4% pace. Exports to the EU were also firm in y/y terms.
  • Imports were 10.1%y/y for the first 20-days, versus 14.2% y/y prior. The trade deficit was -$1.47bn, but this does tend to improve in the final 10days of the month.
  • The resilient export trend should given the BoK comfort that a rate cut tomorrow is not needed in the near term to boost the growth outlook.

Fig 1: South Korea Export Trend Improved Further In August

Keep reading...Show less