MNI BRIEF: mBridge Project To Move Forward Despite BIS Exit

MNI BRIEF:China's Nov Retail Prosperity Index Remains Above 50

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY413.7 Bln via OMO Wednesday

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY17.3 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.0993 Weds; +2.87% Y/Y

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.0993 WEDS VS 7.1016

MNI: GERMANY SEP FACTORY ORDERS +4.2% M/M

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 15/20-Year Bunds Due Wednesday

MNI: US ISM OCT SERVICES COMPOSITE INDEX 56

EUROPEAN FISCAL: DE 2025 Budget Gap Grows; Political Risk Is Rising

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Facing More Internal Dissent And Departures

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Faces More Pressure To Resign

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

AUSSIE BONDS: Very Heavy With Tsys As US Election Results Unfold

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM -9.0 & XM -12.0) are sharply weaker in line with movements in cash US tsys as the US election unfolds. 

  • The NYT needle has pushed out of 'lean-Trump' into 'likely-Trump' for the first time this evening amid strong exit poll data for Trump among Latino voters in Michigan and a slight lead for Trump in critical Pennsylvania.
  • Nate Cohen at the Times notes: "[Trump] has an advantage in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. To win, Harris would need to sweep all three. There is still a lot of vote left, but in the voting so far, Trump is narrowly but discernibly ahead."
  • Cash US tsys are currently 11-19bps cheaper, with a steepening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session.
  • Trump-related trades continue to gain ground. US equity futures are up ~1.0% for Eminis.
  • Cash ACGBs are 8-12bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +23bps.
  • Swap rates are 8-12bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip has sharply bear-steepened, with pricing flat to -12.
  • RBA-dated OIS has no easing is priced for this year, with June 2025 being the first meeting where a 25bp rate cut is fully anticipated.
  • Today, the local calendar was empty. Tomorrow will see Trade Balance and Foreign Reserves data.
202 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

ACGBs (YM -9.0 & XM -12.0) are sharply weaker in line with movements in cash US tsys as the US election unfolds. 

  • The NYT needle has pushed out of 'lean-Trump' into 'likely-Trump' for the first time this evening amid strong exit poll data for Trump among Latino voters in Michigan and a slight lead for Trump in critical Pennsylvania.
  • Nate Cohen at the Times notes: "[Trump] has an advantage in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. To win, Harris would need to sweep all three. There is still a lot of vote left, but in the voting so far, Trump is narrowly but discernibly ahead."
  • Cash US tsys are currently 11-19bps cheaper, with a steepening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session.
  • Trump-related trades continue to gain ground. US equity futures are up ~1.0% for Eminis.
  • Cash ACGBs are 8-12bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +23bps.
  • Swap rates are 8-12bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip has sharply bear-steepened, with pricing flat to -12.
  • RBA-dated OIS has no easing is priced for this year, with June 2025 being the first meeting where a 25bp rate cut is fully anticipated.
  • Today, the local calendar was empty. Tomorrow will see Trade Balance and Foreign Reserves data.