MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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AUSSIE BONDS: Very Heavy With Tsys As US Election Results Unfold

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM -9.0 & XM -12.0) are sharply weaker in line with movements in cash US tsys as the US election unfolds. 

  • The NYT needle has pushed out of 'lean-Trump' into 'likely-Trump' for the first time this evening amid strong exit poll data for Trump among Latino voters in Michigan and a slight lead for Trump in critical Pennsylvania.
  • Nate Cohen at the Times notes: "[Trump] has an advantage in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. To win, Harris would need to sweep all three. There is still a lot of vote left, but in the voting so far, Trump is narrowly but discernibly ahead."
  • Cash US tsys are currently 11-19bps cheaper, with a steepening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session.
  • Trump-related trades continue to gain ground. US equity futures are up ~1.0% for Eminis.
  • Cash ACGBs are 8-12bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +23bps.
  • Swap rates are 8-12bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip has sharply bear-steepened, with pricing flat to -12.
  • RBA-dated OIS has no easing is priced for this year, with June 2025 being the first meeting where a 25bp rate cut is fully anticipated.
  • Today, the local calendar was empty. Tomorrow will see Trade Balance and Foreign Reserves data.
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ACGBs (YM -9.0 & XM -12.0) are sharply weaker in line with movements in cash US tsys as the US election unfolds. 

  • The NYT needle has pushed out of 'lean-Trump' into 'likely-Trump' for the first time this evening amid strong exit poll data for Trump among Latino voters in Michigan and a slight lead for Trump in critical Pennsylvania.
  • Nate Cohen at the Times notes: "[Trump] has an advantage in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. To win, Harris would need to sweep all three. There is still a lot of vote left, but in the voting so far, Trump is narrowly but discernibly ahead."
  • Cash US tsys are currently 11-19bps cheaper, with a steepening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session.
  • Trump-related trades continue to gain ground. US equity futures are up ~1.0% for Eminis.
  • Cash ACGBs are 8-12bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +23bps.
  • Swap rates are 8-12bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip has sharply bear-steepened, with pricing flat to -12.
  • RBA-dated OIS has no easing is priced for this year, with June 2025 being the first meeting where a 25bp rate cut is fully anticipated.
  • Today, the local calendar was empty. Tomorrow will see Trade Balance and Foreign Reserves data.