AUSSIE-YEN: AUD/JPY last trades at Y78.48, 12 pips...>

AUSSIE-YEN: AUD/JPY last trades at Y78.48, 12 pips worse off. The yen is drawing

support from modest risk-off flows; elsewhere, AUD crosses knee-jerk spiked

lower on the back of a softer than exp. AU retail sales print, but its impact

was seemingly countered by the release of wider than exp. AU trade surplus.

- Worth mentioning UBS revised its RBA call, echoing yesterday's revision by

J.P. Morgan, and now exp. the central bank to deliver two 25bp cuts in July and

August this year. Also worth noting UBS were already looking for 2 RBA cuts, 1

in Q4 2019 and in Q1 2020, so they have front loaded their view.

- Initial support is located at the 50-DMA, situated at Y78.39, followed by the

lower 1.0% 10-DMA envelope at Y78.31. Meanwhile, bulls initially look to the

21-DMA at Y78.82 and the next layer of resistance above is provided by the

psychological Y79.00 level.