MNI BRIEF: Aussie Retail Trade Growth Slows To 0.1% M/M

MNI BRIEF: Japan Sept Factory Output Rises 1.4% M/M

MACKLEM SAYS BOC IS PREPARED TO CUT 50BPS AGAIN IF REQUIRED

MNI BRIEF: 3Q US GDP Slows To 2.8%; Core PCE Inflation 2.2%

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, October 30

MNI OCT CHINA MONEY MARKET INDEX 38.4

Australia Q3 Exports Price Index -4.3%; Imports Price Index -1.4%

Australia Sep Retail Sales +0.1% M/M

Australia Sep Total Dwellings Approved +4.4%

EUROPEAN FISCAL: DE 2025 Budget Gap Grows; Political Risk Is Rising

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Facing More Internal Dissent And Departures

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Faces More Pressure To Resign

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

AUSTRALIA: Q3 Underlying Inflation Should Progress Towards Top Of Band

AUSTRALIA
APACAustraliaBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

Australian Q3/September CPI data are released on Wednesday and Q3 will be an important input into the November 5 RBA decision. Headline will be impacted by temporary government energy relief and so the trimmed mean will be the focus, as well as the continued attention on domestically-driven services. Consensus Q3 projections are in line with the RBA’s August Q4 forecasts, which may result in a downward revision to its inflation outlook in the November Statement on Monetary Policy next week. 

  • Bloomberg consensus is forecasting trimmed mean CPI to rise 0.7% q/q with the annual rate easing to 3.5% from 3.9%, equal to the RBA’s Q4 projection. Most analysts are around consensus. Westpac is exactly in line, CBA is forecasting 0.7%q/q but 3.4% y/y, while both ANZ and NAB have 0.8% and 3.5%.
  • Headline is expected to rise 0.3% q/q and 2.9% y/y, below the RBA’s 3.0% for Q4, after 1.0% and 3.8% in Q2. All four local banks are in line with consensus.
  • The ABS said that government energy rebates drove a 14.6% drop in August electricity prices. The 6.7% decline in nationwide petrol prices in Q3 will also add downward pressure on headline.
  • Monthly September data is also published on Wednesday and headline CPI is projected to moderate to 2.3% y/y from 2.7% in August. There is more variability amongst analysts than the quarterly data with forecasts between 1.8% and 2.6% but forecasts are concentrated around 2.2-2.5%. CBA and Westpac are below consensus at 2.2%, ANZ is in line while NAB is higher at 2.4%.
256 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Australian Q3/September CPI data are released on Wednesday and Q3 will be an important input into the November 5 RBA decision. Headline will be impacted by temporary government energy relief and so the trimmed mean will be the focus, as well as the continued attention on domestically-driven services. Consensus Q3 projections are in line with the RBA’s August Q4 forecasts, which may result in a downward revision to its inflation outlook in the November Statement on Monetary Policy next week. 

  • Bloomberg consensus is forecasting trimmed mean CPI to rise 0.7% q/q with the annual rate easing to 3.5% from 3.9%, equal to the RBA’s Q4 projection. Most analysts are around consensus. Westpac is exactly in line, CBA is forecasting 0.7%q/q but 3.4% y/y, while both ANZ and NAB have 0.8% and 3.5%.
  • Headline is expected to rise 0.3% q/q and 2.9% y/y, below the RBA’s 3.0% for Q4, after 1.0% and 3.8% in Q2. All four local banks are in line with consensus.
  • The ABS said that government energy rebates drove a 14.6% drop in August electricity prices. The 6.7% decline in nationwide petrol prices in Q3 will also add downward pressure on headline.
  • Monthly September data is also published on Wednesday and headline CPI is projected to moderate to 2.3% y/y from 2.7% in August. There is more variability amongst analysts than the quarterly data with forecasts between 1.8% and 2.6% but forecasts are concentrated around 2.2-2.5%. CBA and Westpac are below consensus at 2.2%, ANZ is in line while NAB is higher at 2.4%.